Epizootic Monitoring and Integrated Risk Assessment of the Spread of Sheep Pox Virus in the Republic of Kazakhstan (2021–2024)

Sheep pox remains one of the most significant viral diseases of small ruminants and poses a serious threat to the sustainable development of sheep farming, causing substantial economic losses due to mortality, decreased productivity, and restrictions on animal movement. The aim of the study was to analyze the epizootic situation of sheep pox in the Republic of Kazakhstan during the period 2021–2024.

The study was based on official veterinary reporting data, materials from outbreak investigations, results of serological monitoring, and laboratory diagnostics. A spatial and temporal assessment of infection spread was performed. The re-emergence of virus circulation was identified, with outbreaks recorded in several regions, including the East Kazakhstan Region, where no cases had been reported for a prolonged period.

To assess the probability of further disease spread, an integral risk assessment model was developed, incorporating the likelihood of adverse factor realization, the severity of potential consequences, and the controllability of the epizootic process. In addition, whole-genome sequencing data of field virus isolates were analyzed, confirming their genetic similarity and suggesting a possible transboundary pattern of circulation.

The findings indicate the need to strengthen preventive measures, expand serological monitoring, and implement modern molecular genetic methods in veterinary practice. A comprehensive risk-based approach will improve the effectiveness of sheep pox control and reduce the likelihood of new epizootic foci.

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